Author Topic: National lockdown  (Read 2018 times)

Offline Baine Bloodhoof

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National lockdown
« on: March 23, 2020, 09:19:32 PM »
Not so lekker, but here it is. Our president has declared a national 21 day lockdown, starting 12pm Thursday 26th. This is going to devastate the economy. Read all about it here

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2020-03-23-breaking-news-sa-going-into-national-lockdown-to-combat-covid-19/
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Offline chrisc

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2020, 09:24:51 PM »
Yes, I suppose Yebo is not what you would call an essential service

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Offline Des Miles

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2020, 10:38:22 PM »

Will plumbers be allowed to continue operating, surely  they provided essential services?
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Offline Baine Bloodhoof

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2020, 11:39:37 PM »
Yes, I suppose Yebo is not what you would call an essential service

That is what Im afraid of. To some it might seem a holiday, but I doubt they realize the implications of such a decision. Companies will fold after this. And heaven forbid, where do you get another job at age 46 :-(
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Offline TimbaLand

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2020, 12:06:47 AM »
Not so lekker, but here it is. Our president has declared a national 21 day lockdown, starting 12pm Thursday 26th. This is going to devastate the economy. Read all about it here

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2020-03-23-breaking-news-sa-going-into-national-lockdown-to-combat-covid-19/

The economy is important but how much are lives worth? Another way to look at it is if there’s no lock down and the virus is not halted how much impact will that have on the economy vs. having a lockdown? It is about opportunity costs of which the decision has been taken on  the basis of  taking a lot  of factors into account. 
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 12:08:55 AM by TimbaLand »
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Offline TimbaLand

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2020, 12:09:54 AM »
That is what Im afraid of. To some it might seem a holiday, but I doubt they realize the implications of such a decision. Companies will fold after this. And heaven forbid, where do you get another job at age 46 :-(

1. You also can’t get a job if u are not alive
2. You may be alive but if the virus is not dealt with there will be no economy to talk about
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Online Katji

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2020, 07:25:49 AM »
+ better now than after 1-2 weeks  ...like Italy.
+ wake-up call now = ok, sht is real. ..motivation to get financial measures/schemes etc. going.

Offline reactor_sa

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2020, 10:07:32 AM »
It's war against an invisible enemy, not a war anyone chose either but we have to do what we can to defend lives. Of closed cases only 87% recovered, and 13% have died.

Online Katji

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2020, 10:15:30 AM »
That sounds about right - to me, based on not much reading/following, but it seems to fit with what was happening in Wuhan, and then Italy.

Offline kalith

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2020, 12:26:56 PM »
The official mortality rate is 2-4% but those figures are based on information that came out of china.
If you look at : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Closed Cases : 119,140
Recovered / Discharged : 102,393 (86%)
Deaths : 16,747 (14%)

the official mortality rate(2-4%) just doesn't seem to line up with actual on hand situation.
irrespective i initially thought its just a bad ass flu ,but those figures paint a far bleaker picture.

Offline JonnyP

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2020, 03:30:23 PM »
It is difficult to measure the mortality rate until long into a pandemic, the reasons are many but two pertinent ones are 1. Many less obvious viruses may have high numbers of people experiencing mild or few symptoms.  As a result, numbers of cases (as not everyone is tested) may be much higher than reported due to non-reporting sufferers.  2. As a virus moves across the world, health services try to ‘flatten the curve’ so that they can treat people without being overwhelmed.  The initial surges in numbers don’t allow for this and as has been seen in China and Italy, at first the health services are overwhelmed.  Add to that not initially knowing how to treat patients and initial mortality rates are much higher.

The WHO estimate initially was that it would be 3-4%.  I think that may have come down now to below 2%.  That said, that is still 20 times the mortality rate of seasonal flu so it is very high.
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Offline jvr

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2020, 08:23:16 PM »
In China, where the first wave has come and gone, the mortality rate ended being at around 4% of total infections, IF accurate..?

Germany, as always, is highly efficient in combatting this virus. They have like only 400 deaths and 6,500+ recoveries out of 50,000 cases.

Italy, especially, is terrible. They are running at close to 5:6 ratio between dying and recovering, while Spain and France are also not doing all that good. These countries are having an impact on that overall world statistics.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 08:29:54 PM by jvr »
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Online Katji

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2020, 08:32:53 PM »
USA deaths number has exceeded China.

Calculating per confirmed infections is problematic.   USA has done more community testing. 

Offline jvr

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2020, 10:55:35 AM »
The USA, with their latest spike, is a very real and very major concern.. Their own mortality rate is tracking that of Italy right now. It has all the telltale signs of a major pandemic in that country. Cities like New York could become as bad (or worse) as Madrid right now.

And talking of which..Spain, Italy and France at the centre of Europe are in a dire situation, and that makes Germany a very odd exception to the rule (similar infection rates, but very low mortality and very high recovery). I wonder what are their key mitigation measures..?
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Offline capetownwatches

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Re: National lockdown
« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2020, 11:40:18 AM »

And talking of which..Spain, Italy and France at the centre of Europe are in a dire situation, and that makes Germany a very odd exception to the rule (similar infection rates, but very low mortality and very high recovery). I wonder what are their key mitigation measures..?


Germany has a low Covid-19 death rate — thanks largely to mass testing.
Germany's death rate from the coronavirus is substantially lower than that seen in Italy, Spain, and the UK. 49,603 Germans had tested positive for the coronavirus as of March 27, with 308 deaths.
That gives a death rate of 0.62%. Spain's rate is 7.6% and Italy's is 10.2%. This is because Germany is testing as many as 120,000 people a week, meaning the number of cases keeps rising while the number of deaths trickle in slowly.
Germany is also in an early stage of its outbreak, has excellent intensive care facilities, a young average age of infection, and a severe lockdown in place.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.co.za/germany-why-coronavirus-death-rate-lower-italy-spain-test-healthcare-2020-3
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 12:10:37 PM by capetownwatches »