My view on the whole HD saga is that I dont really see too much of a future for either HD DVD or Blu-Ray..
Download on demand will happen as will streaming.
Another contender I believe will be flash memory.
I believe that ultimately flash memory will become cheap enough to be considered as a rival to DB or HD discs. When this happens all you'll need to watch High def movies will be a card reader either built into or connected to an A/V processor. This way there would be no need for any lazer based player that uses motors or lazers (control circuits) that generate noise and can fail.
Personally if despite the above, i was to consider buying a HD player, I'de wait at least another year or untill such time as there was enough software to warant the purchase.